{"id":501,"date":"2011-12-01T05:08:21","date_gmt":"2011-12-01T10:08:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/facilitativeleadership.wordpress.com\/?p=501"},"modified":"2026-05-01T15:36:25","modified_gmt":"2026-05-01T19:36:25","slug":"bad-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mgrush.com\/blog\/bad-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"Bad Predictions for Science and Technology"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 style=\"text-align: left;\" align=\"center\"><span style=\"font-size: 24pt;\">One of the biggest challenges with facilitation is to build consensus about a future state. Therefore, in a light-hearted sense as we approach the holiday season, here are some bad predictions that likely garnered some respect along the way\u2014albeit short-lived.<\/span><\/h2>\n<div id=\"attachment_943\" style=\"width: 246px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/mgrush.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/get_out_of-the_box.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-943\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-943\" title=\"Get_Out_of-the_Box\" src=\"https:\/\/mgrush.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/get_out_of-the_box.png?w=236\" alt=\"\" width=\"236\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/mgrush.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/get_out_of-the_box.png 421w, https:\/\/mgrush.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/get_out_of-the_box-237x300.png 237w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 236px) 100vw, 236px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-943\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Get Out of the Box<\/span><\/p><\/div>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">An ancient bad prediction: \u201cInventions have long since reached their limit, and I see no hope for further developments.\u201d <em>Roman engineer <a class=\"zem_slink\" title=\"Sextus Julius Frontinus\" href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Sextus_Julius_Frontinus\" rel=\"wikipedia\">Julius Sextus Frontinus<\/a>, AD 10.<\/em><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u201cThat\u2019s an amazing invention, but who would ever want to use one of them?\u201d <em><a class=\"zem_slink\" title=\"Rutherford B. Hayes\" href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Rutherford_B._Hayes\" rel=\"wikipedia\">President Rutherford B. Hayes<\/a> to <a class=\"zem_slink\" title=\"Alexander Graham Bell\" href=\"http:\/\/musicbrainz.org\/artist\/9dd93d09-24b4-41f1-a48b-ef48b07499c3\" rel=\"musicbrainz\">Alexander Graham Bell<\/a>, 1876.<\/em><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u201cIt doesn\u2019t matter what he does, he will never amount to anything.\u201d <em><a class=\"zem_slink\" title=\"Albert Einstein\" href=\"http:\/\/www.rottentomatoes.com\/celebrity\/albert_einstein\" rel=\"rottentomatoes\">Albert Einstein<\/a>\u2019s teacher to his father, 1895.<\/em><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u201cI have anticipated [radio\u2019s] complete disappearance \u2014 confident that the unfortunate people, who must now subdue themselves to \u2018listening-in\u2019 will soon find a better pastime for their leisure.\u201d <em>H.G. Wells, <\/em><a class=\"zem_slink\" title=\"The Way the World is Going\" href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/The_Way_the_World_is_Going\" rel=\"wikipedia\">The Way the World is Going<\/a><em>, 1925.<\/em><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u201cThe problem with television is that the people must sit and keep their eyes glued on a screen; the average American family hasn\u2019t time for it.\u201d <a class=\"zem_slink\" title=\"NYSE: NYT\" href=\"http:\/\/www.google.com\/search?q=NYSE:NYT&amp;tbm=fin&amp;gws_rd=ssl\" rel=\"googlefinance\">The New York Times<\/a>, <em>after a prototype television was demonstrated at the 1939 World\u2019s Fair.<\/em><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u201cIt would appear we have reached the limits of what it is possible to achieve with computer technology, although one should be careful with such statements; they tend to sound pretty silly in five years.\u201d <em>Computer scientist John von Neumann, 1949.<\/em><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u201cMan will never reach the moon, regardless of all future scientific advances.\u201d <em>Radio pioneer Lee De Forest, 1957.<\/em><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u201cDespite the trend to compactness and lower costs, it is unlikely everyone will have his own computer any time soon.\u201d <em>Reporter Stanley Penn, <\/em><a class=\"zem_slink\" title=\"The Wall Street Journal\" href=\"http:\/\/www.wsj.com\/\" rel=\"homepage\">The Wall Street Journal<\/a><em>, 1966.<\/em><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u201cBut what is [the microchip] good for?\u201d <em>Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of <a class=\"zem_slink\" title=\"LSE: IBM\" href=\"http:\/\/www.google.com\/search?q=LON:IBM&amp;tbm=fin&amp;gws_rd=ssl\" rel=\"googlefinance\">IBM<\/a>, 1968.<\/em><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u201cI predict the Internet\u2026will go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.\u201d <em>Bob Metcalfe,<\/em> <a class=\"zem_slink\" title=\"InfoWorld\" href=\"http:\/\/www.infoworld.com\/\" rel=\"homepage\">InfoWorld<\/a>, <em>1995<\/em><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\">Origin of Bad Predictions<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">In conclusion, these were first compiled by Laura Lee and published in <em>The Futurist,<\/em> September-October 2000. Finally, for structured facilitation support, see your <em>F<span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">AST<\/span><\/em> Facilitator Reference Manual or attend a <em>F<span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">AST<\/span><\/em> Professional Facilitative\u00a0Leadership\u00a0training session offered around the world (see\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/mgrush.com\/\/\">http:\/\/www.mgrush.com\/<\/a>\u00a0for a current schedule).<\/span><\/p>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #ff0000; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>______<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Don\u2019t ruin your career by hosting <a href=\"https:\/\/mgrush.com\/blog\/bad-meetings\/\">bad meetings<\/a>. Sign up for a <a href=\"https:\/\/mgrush.com\/public-facilitation-training\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">workshop<\/a> or send this to someone who should. <em><a href=\"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20260106090117\/https:\/\/mgrush.com\/\">MGR<span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">USH<\/span><\/a><\/em> workshops focus on meeting design and practice. Each person practices tools, methods, and activities every day during the week. Therefore, while some call this immersion, we call it the road to building high-value facilitation skills.<\/span><\/p>\n<h6 class=\"zemanta-related-title\" style=\"font-size: 1em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Related articles<\/span><\/h6>\n<ul class=\"zemanta-article-ul\">\n<li class=\"zemanta-article-ul-li\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">George Dyson&#8217;s history of the computer: Turing&#8217;s Cathedral (boingboing.net)<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"zemanta-article-ul-li\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/books\/2012\/mar\/25\/turings-cathedral-george-dyson-review\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Turing&#8217;s Cathedral by George Dyson<\/a> (guardian.co.uk)<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"zemanta-article-ul-li\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/plato.stanford.edu\/entries\/qt-nvd\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Quantum Theory: von Neumann vs. Dirac<\/a> (plato.stanford.edu)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.cornerstone.edu\/blogs\/lifelong-learning-matters\/post\/5-traits-that-set-great-leaders-apart-from-the-pack\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">5 Traits That Set Great Leaders Apart From The Pack<\/a>\u00a0(Cornerstone University)<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>One of the biggest challenges with facilitation is to build consensus about a future state. Therefore, in a light-hearted sense as we approach the holiday season, here are some bad predictions that likely garnered some respect along the way\u2014albeit short-lived. An ancient bad prediction: \u201cInventions have long since reached their limit, and I see no [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":943,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_wp_convertkit_post_meta":{"form":"-1","landing_page":"","tag":"0","restrict_content":"0"},"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[453185951],"tags":[453191178,453190657,453192147,453191030],"class_list":["post-501","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-leadership-skills","tag-attitude-of-gratitude","tag-bad-predictions","tag-catalyst-product-innovation-method","tag-decision-quality"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.8 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Bad Predictions for Science and Technology<\/title>\n<meta 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