{"id":2230,"date":"2015-04-16T00:01:42","date_gmt":"2015-04-16T04:01:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/terrencemetz.com\/?p=2230"},"modified":"2026-04-21T13:45:39","modified_gmt":"2026-04-21T17:45:39","slug":"smart-dumb","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mgrush.com\/blog\/smart-dumb\/","title":{"rendered":"When Smart People Make Dumb Decisions – SMART vs DUMB?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Smart vs Dumb?<\/strong><\/h2>\n

According to experts in an emerging field called the Science of Choice, everyone can learn to make higher-quality decisions<\/a>. In fact, smart people make dumb decisions with alarming regularity. Or, they speak using vague verbs that further confuse the situation. What are the differences between smart<\/a> and dumb?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

First, understand the primary cause of poor individual decisions\u2014overconfidence<\/em><\/a>. Then realize that one of the reasons groups make higher quality decisions<\/a> than the smartest person in the group is the ability to force participants to think outside of their normal comfort zone. Vague verbs will also get in the way, as discussed below.<\/span><\/p>\n

Objective or Subjective?<\/h3>\n

Natural decision-making<\/a> for individuals relies on an \u201cinside view\u201d. Not surprisingly, we call our meeting participants<\/a> \u201csubject matter experts\u201d because their inside view is also known as the subjective view. For example, two people eating from the same bowl of chili may arrive at different conclusions. One may find the chili excessively \u2018hot\u201d (as in spicy) and the other, not. Both are correct from their subjective points of view, so how do we as facilitators \u201cobjectify<\/a>\u201d their assessment?<\/span><\/p>\n

Participants, especially when focused on specific situations, tend to use information that is cheap; i.e., costs little in terms of time to access and out-of-pocket costs. They make their judgments and predictions based on a narrow set of inputs. Perhaps, for example, there was only one habanero pepper in the chili, and it ended up in only one of the bowls. Participants<\/a> do not consider the full range of possibilities. Frequently in planning modes, people paint a \u201ctoo optimistic\u201d view of the future, largely due to overconfidence<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Overconfidence is central to the inside view and leads to at least two illusions that can dramatically lower the quality of decisions<\/a>:<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Smart

Sometimes Smart<\/a> People Make Dumb Decisions<\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/div>\n

    \n
  1. Illusion of Control<\/span><\/li>\n
  2. Illusion of Superiority<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    1. Illusion of Control<\/strong><\/h3>\n

    People behave as if chance events are subject to their influence. Simply stated, people who believe that they have some control<\/a> over the situation perceive their \u201codds of success\u201d are higher, even when they are not. Numerous studies have proven the illusion of control, typically using random<\/a> chance, such as the throw of the dice. Money managers, for example, behave as if they can beat the market when, in fact, very few outperform the major indices.<\/span><\/p>\n

    2. Illusion of Superiority<\/strong><\/h3>\n

    Most people consider themselves \u2018above average\u2019 drivers. Likewise, most professionals place themselves in the top half of performers. Clearly, these judgments<\/a> are absurd, as at least half of all drivers would be considered \u2018below average.\u2019 Likewise for professionals, as people maintain an unrealistically positive view of themselves, not everyone can be above average. In fact, according to one large study, more than 80 percent of those surveyed considered themselves above average<\/a>. Remarkably, and scary too, the least-capable people often have the largest gaps between their perception and reality. Those in the bottom quartile of various studies dramatically overstate their abilities, and nearly everyone tends to dismiss their shortcomings as inconsequential.<\/span><\/p>\n

    What is the Solution?<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

    Various researchers have discovered that building consensus provides the best way to overcome individual biases<\/a>. When building consensus, an outside view is brought into the decision-making<\/a> process that improves the quality of individual decisions. Here is a methodological approach<\/a> for facilitators:<\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
    1. \n

      Find a Surrogate (Diverge):<\/em><\/span><\/h4>\n

      Ask the group to identify similar situations, comparable industries, and significant competitors, or even stir up<\/a> the group by adding participants with competing points of view.<\/span><\/li>\n

    2. \n

      Assess the Distribution of Potential Outcomes (Analyze):<\/em><\/span><\/h4>\n

      Treat the decision<\/a> as conditional rather than fixed. Under what conditions might Decision A be more appropriate than Decision B, etc.?<\/span><\/li>\n

    3. \n

      Base decisions, especially predictions, on ranges of outcomes and probabilities, and not a fixed set. (Converge):<\/em><\/span><\/h4>\n

      Consider scenario planning<\/a> and build at least three decisions; perhaps the sunny, cloudy, and stormy perspectives. Study the outcomes including the most common, and the average, and check the extremes to help influence a group to consider an \u2018outside view.\u2019<\/span><\/li>\n

    4. \n

      Calibrate the decision or prediction as necessary (Document):<\/em><\/span><\/h4>\n

      Remember the biases<\/a> discussed earlier, as it remains likely that the justification of views may remain too optimistic and overconfident. Interesting research within the National Football League (NFL) about counter-intuitive decisions<\/a> such as going for it on fourth down, two-point conversions, onside kicks, and the like shows that coaches who are willing to break from tradition are more successful by generating more points and victories than those who play it safe. See Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder<\/em><\/a> for further discussion that expounds on Chaos Theory<\/a>.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Some discrete words, here focused on vague verbs, also lend themselves to being DUMB<\/a><\/span>. <\/span><\/h3>\n

      DUMB stands for Dull, Ubiquitous, Myopic, and Broad\u2014in other words, vague. Because the terms below carry multiple meanings, participants interpret them based on their individual biases and perspectives<\/a>\u2014the opposite of consensual understanding.<\/span><\/p>\n

      As you improve your meeting leadership skills, constantly endeavor to listen<\/a> to yourself. We know about the importance of NOT NEVER EVER using the term \u201cI\u201d<\/a> after the Introduction has been completed. After all, it is not about you, it is about them. It is OK to use the plural and integrative first person, however, including \u2018we\u2019 and \u2018us.\u2019<\/span><\/p>\n

      Additionally, keep in mind the following should be directed at participants<\/a> and do not represent actions that are owned by the facilitator. These terms are typically put in the form of a challenge<\/a>, such as an action plan for the participants. Limit your choice of using the following words<\/a> and note the supporting rationale:<\/span><\/p>\n

      15 Vague Verbs to Avoid<\/h3>\n
      \"Avoid<\/a>

      Avoid Vague Verbs that are Abstract and DUMB<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/div>\n

        \n
      1. Administer\u2014Really? How are you going to do that?<\/span><\/li>\n
      2. Assure\u2014What is the action that\u00a0provides the assurance?<\/span><\/li>\n
      3. Consult\u2014Here we have a contronym. Are you giving or receiving something?<\/span><\/li>\n
      4. Develop\u2014This requires an entire life cycle of discrete activities.<\/span><\/li>\n
      5. Ensure\u2014Given the many things we have no control over, how will you do this?<\/span><\/li>\n
      6. Establish\u2014An early process in most life cycles, requiring multiple steps or activities. What are they?<\/span><\/li>\n
      7. Expedite\u2014Simply substitute HOW are you going to do this?<\/span><\/li>\n
      8. Follow-up\u2014MGRUSH<\/span><\/em> provides three tools for following up. \u00a0Each tool requires multiple activities to complete the step effectively.<\/span><\/li>\n
      9. Implement\u2014Another life cycle term that begs for clear\u00a0detail.<\/span><\/li>\n
      10. Investigate\u2014A life cycle by itself that will require multiple activities.<\/span><\/li>\n
      11. Manage\u2014Probably the most abused of all terms (outside of consult). Twelve people will interpret what ‘manage’ means, in a few dozen different ways.<\/span><\/li>\n
      12. Monitor\u2014Classic. Sounds good, but HOW are you going to do this?<\/span><\/li>\n
      13. Observe\u2014Face-to-face? Secondary information? Third-hand hearsay?<\/span><\/li>\n
      14. Perform\u2014Do you mean act? If so, what action will be taken?<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        We do not expect you to memorize these terms, so strive to integrate the logic. Verbs to avoid are typically vague because they are abstract<\/a>. Participant-friendly terms are more active and tend towards the concrete<\/a>. For example, it is easier to visualize<\/a> someone \u201ctelling\u201d someone else, rather than \u201ccollaborating.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

        SMART vs DUMB Criteria?<\/h3>\n

        The intent here is to illustrate the difference between clear, or SMART<\/a> (Specific, Measurable, Adjustable, Relevant, and Time-based) definitions and criteria contrasted with unclear or DUMB (i.e., Dull, Ubiquitous, Myopic, and Broad) definitions and criteria.<\/span><\/p>\n

        An Unclear\u00a0<\/strong>Business Definition
        \n<\/strong>(Example of DUMB Customer ID)<\/em><\/span><\/h4>\n

        “The ID of the customer”\"\"<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

        A Clear\u00a0<\/strong>Business Definition
        \n<\/strong>(Example of SMART Customer ID)<\/em><\/span><\/h4>\n

        “A twelve character code that uniquely identifies a customer for our business.\u00a0 The code will be displayed on all customer shipments and invoices.\u00a0 Customers and customer service representatives use this code to resolve shipping or invoicing issues.\u00a0 Finance uses this code to track customer sales performance.\u00a0 Marketing uses this code for determining customer segment and group performance.\u00a0 Sales uses this code to identify products purchases by customer.”<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

        The code consists of the following Characters:<\/span><\/p>\n