{"id":1765,"date":"2014-04-17T03:44:41","date_gmt":"2014-04-17T07:44:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/terrencemetz.com\/?p=1765"},"modified":"2026-04-21T13:53:31","modified_gmt":"2026-04-21T17:53:31","slug":"overconfidence-effect","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mgrush.com\/blog\/overconfidence-effect\/","title":{"rendered":"Beware of the Overconfidence Effect With Subject Matter Experts and be Prepared to Challenge"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>You and I have been victims of numerous false, urban legends. So please beware of the overconfidence effect among subject matter experts. For example:<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">The Great Wall of China is NOT visible from outer space<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">You use a lot more than ten percent of your brain<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Relatively speaking, it\u2019s much safer to take candy from strangers than from family members. Statistically, family members are more likely than strangers to poison others.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Cognitive biases receive much press because they negatively impact decision quality. Subject matter experts (i.e., SMEs) are frequent victims of an \u201cavailability\u201d bias that causes them to exhibit an overconfidence effect\u00a0&#8212; and they may be wrong. Challenge the overconfidence effect of your subject matter experts with a \u201chip-pocket\u201d tool, something you carry with you at all times.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Background<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">When delivered face-to-face, people treat information as more credible and will more likely refer to it. Participants are frequently impressed by the charisma of the deliverer rather than the value of the information.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Subject matter experts tend to overestimate their contributions that are produced jointly with others. Thus, they overestimate the importance of their contributions and close themselves off from the possibility of other \u201cright\u201d answers.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">For example, two people eating the same bowl of chili will react differently. One may claim the chili is \u201chot\u201d (i.e., spicy) while the other claims it is \u201cnot\u201d. Both are right, so we might appeal to Scoville Units to \u201cobjectify\u201d their claims.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Solution<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Be prepared to demonstrate that SMEs may have \u201can\u201d answer, but not the only answer. Humble overconfident subject matter experts with a host of &#8220;hip-pocket&#8221; challenges. Demonstrate that their answer may be sub-optimal (or even wrong) and that voting is a poor method of <a href=\" https:\/\/mgrush.com\/blog\/evidence-based\/\">decision-making<\/a>. The Bookworm&#8217;s Travels, one of our personal favorites, represents one of hundreds of similar exercises used to shake paradigms.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Solve the question yourself. You will need to write us for the correct answer but we can assure you that the correct answer is not \u201c23.\u201d Keep in mind that these are English books, written from left to right, and stacked in proper sequence, from Volume One through Volume Four, vertically.<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_1766\" style=\"width: 610px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/mgrush.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/goethe.png\"><img wpfc-lazyload-disable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1766\" class=\"wp-image-1766\" src=\"https:\/\/mgrush.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/goethe-300x177.png\" alt=\"Beware of Overconfident Subject Matter Experts, and be Prepared to Challenge\" width=\"600\" height=\"353\" srcset=\"https:\/\/mgrush.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/goethe-300x177.png 300w, https:\/\/mgrush.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/goethe.png 900w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-1766\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Test Overconfident Subject Matter Experts with a Bookworm&#8217;s Travels<\/span><\/p><\/div>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #ff0000; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>______<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Don\u2019t ruin your career by hosting <a href=\"https:\/\/mgrush.com\/blog\/bad-meetings\/\">bad meetings<\/a>. Register for a workshop or forward this to someone who should. <em><a href=\"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20260106090117\/https:\/\/mgrush.com\/\">MGR<span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">USH<\/span><\/a><\/em> facilitation workshops focus on meeting design and practice. Each participant practices tools, methods, and activities every day during the week. Therefore, while some call this immersion, we call it the road to building high-value facilitation skills.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>You and I have been victims of numerous false, urban legends. So please beware of the overconfidence effect among subject matter experts. For example: The Great Wall of China is NOT visible from outer space You use a lot more than ten percent of your brain Relatively speaking, it\u2019s much safer to take candy from [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1766,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_wp_convertkit_post_meta":{"form":"-1","landing_page":"","tag":"0","restrict_content":"0"},"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[453185969,453185951],"tags":[453192220,453192221,453192219,453190861,453190860,453190862],"class_list":["post-1765","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-communication-skills","category-leadership-skills","tag-biases","tag-fake-news","tag-heuristics","tag-overconfident-subject-matter-experts","tag-subject-matter-experts","tag-urban-legends"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.7 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Beware of the Overconfidence Effect With Subject Matter Experts<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Overconfidence Effect -- You and I have been victims of false, urban legends; e.g., the Great Wall of China is NOT visible from outer space.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/mgrush.com\/blog\/overconfidence-effect\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Beware of the Overconfidence Effect With Subject Matter Experts and be Prepared to Challenge\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Overconfidence Effect -- You and I have been victims of false, urban legends; e.g., the Great Wall of China is NOT visible from outer space.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/mgrush.com\/blog\/overconfidence-effect\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"MG RUSH Facilitation Best Practices Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/FacilitationTraining\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/FacilitationTraining\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2014-04-17T07:44:41+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-04-21T17:53:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/mgrush.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/goethe.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"900\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"530\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Facilitation Expert\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@TerrenceMetz\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@terrencemetz\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Facilitation Expert\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/mgrush.com\\\/blog\\\/overconfidence-effect\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/mgrush.com\\\/blog\\\/overconfidence-effect\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Facilitation Expert\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/mgrush.com\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/33b05e43036ff09de0ddfccfef9a4497\"},\"headline\":\"Beware of the Overconfidence Effect With Subject Matter Experts and be Prepared to Challenge\",\"datePublished\":\"2014-04-17T07:44:41+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-04-21T17:53:31+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/mgrush.com\\\/blog\\\/overconfidence-effect\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":446,\"commentCount\":1,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/mgrush.com\\\/blog\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/mgrush.com\\\/blog\\\/overconfidence-effect\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/mgrush.com\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2014\\\/04\\\/goethe.png\",\"keywords\":[\"Biases\",\"Fake News\",\"Heuristics\",\"Overconfident Subject Matter Experts\",\"Subject Matter Experts\",\"urban legends\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Communication Skills\",\"Leadership Skills\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/mgrush.com\\\/blog\\\/overconfidence-effect\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/mgrush.com\\\/blog\\\/overconfidence-effect\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/mgrush.com\\\/blog\\\/overconfidence-effect\\\/\",\"name\":\"Beware of the Overconfidence Effect With Subject Matter Experts\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/mgrush.com\\\/blog\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/mgrush.com\\\/blog\\\/overconfidence-effect\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/mgrush.com\\\/blog\\\/overconfidence-effect\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/mgrush.com\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2014\\\/04\\\/goethe.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2014-04-17T07:44:41+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-04-21T17:53:31+00:00\",\"description\":\"Overconfidence Effect -- You and I have been victims of false, urban legends; 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However, he also observed meetings that worked. What set them apart? A well-prepared leader who structured the session to ensure participants contributed meaningfully and achieved clear outcomes. Throughout his career, Metz, who earned an MBA from Kellogg (Northwestern University) experienced and also trained in various facilitation techniques. In 2004, he purchased MG RUSH where he shifted his focus toward improving established meeting designs and building a curriculum that would teach others how to lead, facilitate, and structure meetings that drive results. His expertise in training world-class facilitators led to the 2020 publication of Meetings That Get Results: A Guide to Building Better Meetings, a comprehensive resource on effectively building consensus. Grounded in the principle that \u201cnobody is smarter than everybody,\u201d the book details the why, what, and how of building consensus when making decisions, planning, and solving problems. Along with a Participant\u2019s Guide and supplemental workshops, it supports learning from foundational awareness to professional certification. Metz\u2019s first book, Change or Die: A Business Process Improvement Manual, tackled the challenges of process optimization. His upcoming book, Catalyst: Facilitating Innovation, focuses on meetings and workshops that don\u2019t simply end when time runs out but conclude with actionable next steps and clear assignments\u2014ensuring progress beyond discussions and ideas.","sameAs":["http:\/\/MGrush.com","http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/FacilitationTraining\/","https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/terrencemetz\/","@teammetz","https:\/\/x.com\/TerrenceMetz","https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=j4x3-Qo9Ez4"],"birthDate":"1955-09-23","gender":"male","jobTitle":"Managing Director","worksFor":"MG Rush Facilitation","url":"https:\/\/mgrush.com\/blog\/author\/teammetz7\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/mgrush.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/goethe.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mgrush.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1765","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mgrush.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mgrush.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mgrush.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mgrush.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1765"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mgrush.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1765\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mgrush.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1766"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mgrush.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1765"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mgrush.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1765"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mgrush.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1765"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}