{"id":1694,"date":"2014-01-16T04:30:57","date_gmt":"2014-01-16T09:30:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/terrencemetz.com\/?p=1694"},"modified":"2026-05-01T15:54:51","modified_gmt":"2026-05-01T19:54:51","slug":"planning-fallacy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mgrush.com\/blog\/planning-fallacy\/","title":{"rendered":"How Experience and Qualifications Amplify the Planning Fallacy (i.e., \u201cOverconfidence\u201d)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Research by Ana Guinote and Mario Weick shows that people in positions of power are particularly ineffective planners.<\/h2>\n

People who feel powerful focus on getting what they want and ignore the potential obstacles that stand in the way. The planning fallacy: the planning efforts of powerful people rely frequently on \u201cbest case scenarios\u201d and lead to far shorter time estimates than more practical plans that take into account what may go wrong.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"How<\/a>

Overconfidence: The Fallacy of Planning<\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/div>\n

Good time management starts with the deliverable and breaks it into manageable pieces, understanding the activities required to support each, and an estimate based on multiple factors such as group size, functionality, and experience. However, most leaders are relatively poor at estimating the time they will need to complete any task. Psychologists refer to this as both the <\/span>planning fallacy<\/i> and the <\/span>bias of overconfidence<\/i>. Fallacies and biases put us at increasing risk of reaching our objectives on time.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

The Overconfidence Bias Damages<\/span><\/h3>\n

You can learn more accurately how to predict the length of an activity and become a better estimator and planner if you consider the potential obstacles and two other factors.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Reflect on your past experiences and how long similar activities have taken in the past, and<\/span><\/li>\n
  2. Break the activity into smaller pieces or tasks (e.g., questions or steps) and factor in the time for each task.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    For example, Brainstorming<\/i> as an activity should be broken into three tasks, namely:<\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Diverge or List\u2014estimate time based on whether or not you are using break-out teams, ELMO rule (Enough, Let\u2019s Move On), etc.<\/span><\/li>\n
    2. Analyze\u2014estimate based on the tool to be used (e.g., PowerBalls or Decision Matrix) and allow time for scrubbing the list.\u00a0 Estimate separately for some time for thorough definitions, capturing omissions, and deleting sub-optimal input.<\/span><\/li>\n
    3. Converge or Decide\u2014estimate based on providing substantial reflection (i.e., active listening) around the rationale for decisions made and allow extra time for testing the decision against the initial purpose of the decision.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      ______<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n

      Don\u2019t ruin your career by hosting bad meetings<\/a>. Sign up for a workshop<\/a> or send this to someone who should. MGRUSH<\/span><\/a><\/em> workshops focus on meeting design and practice. Each person practices tools, methods, and activities every day during the week. Therefore, while some call this immersion, we call it the road to building high-value facilitation skills.<\/span><\/p>\n

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